Now that we are past the popular November ED (Early Decision) and EA (Early Action) college application deadlines, we can look back on the trends for the first time in regards to the 2022-2023 application cycle. On November 18th, Common App came out with their initial report of the application numbers up through the November 1st application deadlines. Click here for the full report. Below, I will highlight the most important trends to recognize and how it impacts current seniors and juniors when applying to colleges.
- College applications continue to rise at rapid rate. Applications increased the most (45%) at colleges with less than a 25% admit rate.
Those of us in the college counseling profession continue to cringe as we see application numbers continuing to rise at at rapid rates because it’s creating a logjam at the more competitive admission colleges in the country, which in turn, makes seniors apply to more colleges since their chances of being accepted go down at their “top choice” colleges. Through November 1st of 2021, Common App reported that there were 2,471,544 first-year applications. This November 1st, of 2023, that number rose to 2,853,554. This is after an increase of 596,709 applications from 2021-2022, the largest increase in history. An example is University of Georgia, who just came out with their Early Action decisions yesterday (11/18). They had their largest increase ever in applications last year and this year received 21% more.
What does this mean for you? Seniors, if you applied to a college that has a 35% or less admission rate, you can most likely reduce your chances of getting accepted by 10% right away, due to the volume of applications they receive and then you will need to have the grades, test scores (if you submit them), essays and extracurriculars to be able to stand out. You also need to show continued demonstrated interest until you receive a decision. Juniors, for every college that you apply to that has a 35% or less admit rate, apply to two more that have a 50% admit rate or higher. Also, start showing demonstrated interest now!
2. The overwhelming majority of applications are from seniors that live in zip codes with the highest median household incomes.
Common App linked ZIP code-level median household income data from the American Community Survey (5 year estimates) to each applicant residing in the United States. The grouped communities (ZIP codes) into 5 quintiles, where quintile 1 comprised the 20% of the ZIP codes with the lowest median household income and quintile 5 represented the 20% of ZIP codes with the highest median household income. Out of 697,042 applicants in 2022, 411,392 were from quintile 5.
What does this mean for you? Students who live in more affluent zip codes tend to apply to the more competitive admission colleges because they put more stock in the publicized and touted rankings. The more competitive admissions colleges love it when students can pay full price or close to it to attend their institution. If you are looking to receive need-based financial assistance to attend college and you live in a more affluent zip code, the opportunity to receive need-based financial aid may be lower due to colleges having the understanding that you could pay more if you had to (home equity being a factor). If you live in quintiles 1-4, colleges may be more generous and provide you with more need-based aid, if you qualify for it. This all is obviously based on your actual need after you complete the FAFSA and for some schools, the CSS Profile. If you are seeking need based aid, make sure you go back to the colleges that your senior has been accepted to, complete all of the financial aid applications that is required, and have honest communication about what documentation that they need to make as accurate a decision as possible when awarding you need-based financial aid. These conversations are better to have in late winter/early spring when they may have a need in enrollment. If you commit to early, they don’t have a reason to give you any more need-based aid. Demonstrated interest also plays a bigger role in how much need-based financial aid you will receive.
3. The share of Common App members requiring standardized test scores since 2019–20 has changed dramatically — from about 55% to just 5% in 2021–22. This season (2022-2023), just 4% of members require a test score to submit an application. There was a slight decrease in student test score reporting, from 51% in 2021–22 to 48% in 2022–23.
I’m going to refer you to a couple of posts regarding whether you should submit scores. They are both posts from The College Kickstart blog titled Selective Colleges with Low Test Submission Rates and Selective Colleges with High Test Submission Rates. Bottom line, take at least two of one test (ACT or SAT) and get the best score that you can. If you are below the average/mean that the college posts, then don’t submit your scores. If you are above the average/mean, then submit them. Even if you would rather not submit your scores for admission purposes, they may benefit you for merit scholarship opportunities or unique programs at the colleges you apply to. If a college is test optional, and you don’t submit test scores, you will not be at a disadvantage compared to students who do. Please click here for a great article on test-option being the “new normal”. You can also read this new article written by Jeff Selingo titled “What Does an SAT Mean Anyomore?”
Conclusion:
As seniors continue to apply to more colleges because they’re concerned they won’t get accepted to the most competitive admission colleges or they don’t want to apply to better fit schools, more college’s admit rates will continue to go down (including flagship state universities) and the cycle will continue. My biggest advice is to look beyond the top 50 colleges in the rankings and find great fit colleges that have over a 50% admit rate. There are hundreds of great colleges that have over a 50% admit rate that students will thrive at and receive a great education. For every college in the top 50 that a senior applies to, they should apply to 2 more colleges that have over a 50% admit rate. You should only apply to 3 or less colleges in the top 50 of the rankings. If you apply to more, you are just playing the college lottery game. No seniors should apply to more than 10 colleges because if you apply to the appropriate schools, you should get into 5-7 of them. Then you can make a more educated decision as to which college you should attend.
Great insights! Thanks!